Condominiums to get costlier in second half

Firms now see construction expenses stabilising, will factor them into projects

developers are planning to launch Bt50 billion worth of city-condominium projects in the second half. But home-buyers will have to shell out more money, because many firms have hammered in the rise in raw-material costs while pricing new projects.

With construction costs expected to stabilise in the second half of the year, developers are planning to launch city-condominium projects worth Bt50 billion during that period.

However, home-buyers will have to shell out more, because many developers have factored in the rise in raw-material costs while pricing new projects.

Many companies, including Plus Property, Sansiri, Property Perfect, Asian Property Development, LPN Development and Chaopraya Mahanakorn, delayed the launch of projects in the first half in the face of rising construction costs.

Property Perfect put off launching of six residential projects worth Bt18.3 billion until the second half, said chief operating officer Teerachon Manomaiphibul. Two of the six projects, Metro Par Ratchada and Metro Park Sukhumvit, are condominiums. The projects are worth Bt4 billion each.

"We delayed launching new city-condominium projects in the first half because we could not estimate how far the construction costs would climb and so could not decide prices for projects. Raw-material prices have seen a rapid rise since last year up through the first half. But we believe the prices will be stable [in the second half]. So we'll launch two city-condominium projects worth a combined Bt8 billion. We've factored in the rise in construction costs while setting prices for the new projects," he said.

LPN Development managing director Opas Sripayak said the company planned to launch four new city-condominium projects under the Lumpini Condo Town brand. The projects, worth about Bt8billion, will target the lower-income group by offering homes at prices under Bt1 million.

"The successful launch of Lumpini Place Rama IX-Ratchada last month boosted confidence in our business-expansion plans for the second half of the year," he said.

Asian Property Development senior executive vice president Visanu Suchatlumpong said his company planned to launch five new city-condominium projects worth a combined Bt10.5 billion in the second half.

They are the Bt800-million The Address on Phya Thai Road, the Bt3.2-billion Life@MRT Ratchada, the Bt1.6-billion Life@Ratchada-Huai Khwang and two projects worth Bt4.9 billion each in Sathorn Soi 12 and Sukhumvit Soi 28.

The company has revised prices 10-14 per cent for the new projects. The average price has risen from Bt70,000 a square metre to between Bt80,000 and Bt90,000, depending on the project's location, Visanu said.

"We've had to raise prices for new projects, in order to offset the rise in construction costs," he said.

Sansiri subsidiary Plus Property also plans to launch six new city-condominium projects worth a combined Bt10 billion in the second half.

Plus Property CEO Mayta Chanchamcharat said his company had delayed the city-condominium projects, because it wanted raw-material prices to stabilise before hammering in the rise in construction costs into new projects.

The company will launch the six projects under the My Condo label but with revised prices. The average prices will rise from Bt1.1 million to between Bt1.9 million and Bt2.1 million.

At a glance

n Property Perfect will launch two city-condominium projects after factoring in rise in costs.

n Asian Property Development has revised prices 10-14 per cent.

n Plus Property has hiked average prices from Bt1.1 million to between Bt1.9 million and Bt2.1 million.

By Somluck Srimalee
The Nation
Published on July 1, 2008

Now's the time to sell condos

Oversupply could push prices downward

Anyone thinking of selling a condominium should do so soon because prices are likely to drop in six to 12 months due to political uncertainty and oversupply, says Ian Soo, managing director of Hamptons Property.

Prices have already stabilised and as more units come on the market, they may be pushed down.

"I think there is an oversupply of units in central Bangkok and I think if you combine that with some sort of political uncertainty then what you will find is less demand," said Mr Soo. "This is effectively going to put pressure on prices."

He said that the downward price pressure was unlikely to be very pronounced in the 1-3 million baht condominium or townhouse segment. "I think the high end of the market will have some stock that will be harder to sell now, so it's more likely to affect the luxury end of the market."

As a lot of the property that was launched a few years ago is now coming on the market, developers will watch how sales pan out over the next six to 12 months. They are in a difficult position because of rising costs, but that does not mean they are going to be able to pass these on to the buyers.

"They can do that when the economy is strong and there is easy credit but not when the economy is stagnant," said Mr Soo.

While this raises fears that lower-quality buildings might be built, Mr Soo does not expect established companies to cut corners but will have to absorb some or all of the costs.

Whether lower prices could turn into a buying opportunity depends on what sorts of units come on the market, in Mr Soo's vie.w

And while sellers would get higher prices if they sell today, he said those who have money to spare are always going to be looking for investments, and property with rental yields of around 6% is not a bad place to park money. "But I think people are being a little bit cautious in this type of environment."

Some expatriate buyers too are holding back, though he says those who have money to invest are still active in the market.

The bright spot is in the rental market, which is unlikely to be affected by the anticipated price drop. But greater choice could lead to better-value units becoming available.

Demand right now is mostly for high-quality one- to two-bedroom units, even though the space is smaller. "There will always be people who will want 300 to 400 square metres, perhaps in an older building further away from the skytrain, but the majority of working professionals living here ... prefer smaller, more modern units."

Hamptons' clients, he says, prefer Sukhumvit as far as Ekamai, plus Silom and Sathon, and these are expected see both rental and buying demand.

Mr Soo said the real estate slowdown was widespread right now, but has not been as serious as in the UK and US because there are more cash buyers in Thailand, which has insulated the country from the credit crisis.

While many think it is good to buy during turbulent times, he said that a lot of people should keep their assets in cash if they are not sure what the situation will be like in a few months.

Although those who bought property during the 1997 meltdown did earn a big profit, this is seems easy in hindsight. "The economic crash of 1997 was huge, very sudden. This economic slowdown is not as dramatic."

Mr Soo urged the government to allow foreigners to get mortgages in Thailand. "They represent a very important part of the property market and expecting them to pay cash or not giving them financial support, something that they should do, is a mistake I think. Not all foreigners are really so rich that they can buy in cash."

NINA SUEBSUKCHAROEN

Developers adjust to cooling of condo fever

The condominium market that began heating up a few years ago is likely to start cooling down and reach a balance point as developers are more cautious about launching new projects when building material costs are volatile. At the same time, prospective buyers of condominiums may hesitate because of concern about higher costs of living and a decrease in their ability to afford new homes.

In fact, higher oil prices had been the factor creating strong demand for the condominium market as people were concerned about travelling expenses. Special interest was shown in those units near mass-transit routes and their planned extension lines.

According to a survey by Agency for Real Estate Affairs (AREA), the average sales rate of condominiums in six major locations _ Ratchada/Lat Phrao/Ratchayothin, Phloen Chit/Sukhumvit/Ekamai, Onnuj/Baring, Silom/Rama III, the western bank of the Chao Phraya River and Bangkok's outskirts _ rose by 40% in 2007 compared to 2006.

However, the average sales rate dropped by 7% in the first quarter of 2008 to 9,247 units from 9,895 in the same period last year.

The only two locations to enjoy an increase in sales were Sukhumvit and the western bank of the Chao Phraya River, up by 33% and 20% respectively.

The highest decrease in sales was in Ratchadaphisek with 46%, followed by Silom/Rama III with 43% and the outskirts by 0.1%, showing a significant downward trend in the condominium market.

Opas Sripayak, managing director of the low-priced condominium leader L.P.N. Development Plc, said the number of new condominiums launched in the first quarter of the year decreased compared to the same period last year.

''Some developers were not confident as volatile prices of steel and rising construction costs pushed unit prices higher while purchasing power was reduced because of inflation,'' he said.

Many developers shifted to develop more low-rise units as supply was limited and they expected single houses and townhouses would be more interesting to homebuyers while tax incentives lasted.

''Everything is becoming more expensive,'' Mr Opas said. ''Low-priced condominiums will be popular during a time of weak purchasing power.''

Teerachon Manomaiphibul, chief operating officer of the listed developer Property Perfect Plc, said higher construction costs were largely being driven by the doubling of steel prices and skyrocketing oil prices since last year.

As a result, construction costs for a condominium building that consumes a lot of steel have risen by at least 30% for construction of less than eight storeys and 35% for more than eight storeys.

Meanwhile, saleable area in a condominium building also has been reduced as stricter rules about environmental concerns require additional utilities in a high-rise residential building.

''Rising construction costs have forced many condominium developers to break their project plans. There will be no more projects at 30,000 to 40,000 baht a square metre,'' Mr Teerachon said. As condominium prices soar, townhouses in the same location might be an alternative.

''Though a condominium project may be sold out, if construction doesn't start or the financial status is not strong, developers may face lower margins and delays in unit transfers,'' he said.

Condo Focus (May 08)

Click the image to download the report

Tourism Condo Thailand

The tourism industry continues as the main driver behind interest in Thailand’s resort condominiums, with holiday destinations close to Bangkok receiving the most attention, especially from international buyers lured by attractive prices.

Thailand’s seaside resorts; namely, Pattaya, Phuket, Koh Samui and Hua Hin, where more than 30% of the country’s luxury condominium inventory is now located, have experienced 9.5% annual growth in international arrivals since 2003, and these strong figures are supporting resort property expansion.

A surge in condominium launches during the second half of 2007 reversed a slowdown that began in mid-2006 and propelled the year-end tally to 2,415 new units. Of these, 67% were located in Pattaya, 26% in Hua Hin, 4% in Phuket and 3% on Koh Samui.

Pattaya’s strong performance was boosted by impressive economic expansion along the eastern seaboard and its proximity to Bangkok and the new Suvarnabhumi Airport.

Luxury condominium launches in Pattaya are trending towards both inland projects with sea views and those with beachfront locations, a reflection of buyers seeking affordable properties regardless of whether or not they have direct beachfront access.

Located three hours southwest of Bangkok, Hua Hin remains attractive due to its relaxing atmosphere, more affordable prices, appeal to Thai buyers and faster development completion schedules. Hua Hin sprang back to life in 2007, with the introduction of 640 units from prominent Bangkok developers, many of whom are launching new projects this year.

Lacklustre demand in Phuket and Koh Samui was linked to hesitant developers baulking at external factors such as currency exchange rates and possible amendments in the Foreign Business Act to make residential property rights more restrictive for non-Thais.

Should the government’s policies on foreign ownership change to allow a higher percentage of foreign ownership, developers will likely introduce more projects in Phuket and Koh Samui to satisfy international demand.

In spite of the deceleration in the rate of new resort development launches in 2007, combined sales value leaped 12% year-on-year to 17 billion baht on the take-up of 1,789 condominium units.

Pattaya’s luxury condominiums sold 544 units worth 6.6 billion baht in 2007, compared to 1,609 launched, for an average of 12.3 million baht.

Hua Hin captured 6.3 billion baht on the sales of 979 units, averaging 6.4 million baht. These projects received strong interest from local investors leading to a majority of the 640 newly launched units being sold.



Limited supply on Koh Samui led to low sales last year, with only 52 units selling for an average of 15.6 million baht. The purchase of 214 units in Phuket generated 3.2 billion baht for an average price of 14.8 million baht.

The average price per square metre (psm) in Pattaya climbed 10% over 2006 to 96,332 baht psm, the highest among all resort areas, followed closely by Phuket at 95,181 baht. Samui units averaged 87,420 baht while those in Hua Hin jumped 14.6% to 72,063 baht.

Of the total resort condo sales in 2007, 27% of the units sold were priced over 100,000 baht psm, and 21% between 80,000 and 100,000 baht psm. Units in the 60,000 to 80,000 baht psm range commanded 29% while those under 60,000 baht made up 23% of the total.

It should be noted that very few of the beachfront or seaview developments are now priced under 100,000 baht psm, and sales at the top 10 most exclusive projects averaged 123,715 baht in 2007.

Of all developments launched since 2003, 1,814 units or 23% were completed as of December last year. Of the remaining 6,177 units, 3,632 were still under construction and 2,545 units were in the planning stages.

These figures demonstrate that there is still very little supply in completed condominiums, as well as a limited number of completed projects in Thailand’s resort locations.

This situation has lifted resale prices, allowing developers to increase the prices of units in new projects while opening the door for investors seeking impressive short-term capital gains.

Foreign buyers accounted a significant portion of condominium purchases in Thailand’s resort areas in 2007, though the most active markets have changed.

Russians rose from outside the Top 10 to head Raimon Land’s 2007 buyer chart, followed by Thais, British and Australians. Germany and China also moved higher while the US and Swedish markets started to slide.

Russians, Thais and British lead Pattaya’s property market, and Phuket is commanded by Russians, British and Australians. Hua Hin remains a predominantly Thai destination, with emerging international interest now making up 20-30% of acquisitions.

In 2008, look for more players and new groups of buyers in Pattaya, with limited completed stock driving up prices. Hua Hin will continue to exhibit strong local demand, with prices increasing in both resale and off-plan projects.

Phuket and Samui will remain vulnerable to external factors. New supply in Phuket will push demand, and look for new areas on the mainland adjacent to the island, now being referred to as Greater Phuket, to open up. Koh Samui will remain a niche market leaning toward branded real estate.

Swiss Park acquired (Sukhumvit 11)

Swiss Park acquired

HOTELS :InVision Hospitality Co, an investment, consultancy and management company, has taken over the Swiss Park Hotel on Sukhumvit Soi 11.

CEO Kevin Beauvais said the acquisition, completed on May 14, would support the company's policy in expanding to target customers ranging from the luxury to mid-tier hotel markets, as well as management and consultancy services for hospitality developers.

InVision's own hotel brands include SOMA Hotels & Resorts, Lantern Hotels & Resorts, and Glow Hotels. It also holds equity and co-invests in some properties.

After the acquisition, the mid-tier Swiss Park with 108 rooms will be renovated by the second half of 2009. It will remain open during the renovations, which will cost about 150 million baht. Once renovations are completed, the hotel will be rebranded as Glow Hotel @ Sukhumvit 11.

Sixteen city-condominium projects in Victory

Offices, Sky Train boost the area’s appeal for homebuyers, investors

Sixteen city-condominium projects, valued at about Bt16 billion, are expected to be launched in the vicinity of the Victory Monument. Most of these projects have sold 30 per cent to 100 per cent within three to six months of opening for booking.

According to a survey conducted by The Nation, these projects are targeted toward the middle- to upperincome segment of the market with prices starting between Bt48,500 per square metre and Bt100,000 per square metre.

The main locations include Phahonyothin Road from Soi 2 till Soi 18, Phayathai Road, Sri Ayudhya Road, Ratchapralop Road and Petchaburi Road.

Resale prices for city condominiums in this area have risen between 10 per cent and 20 per cent this year compared to last year.

Harrison chief executive Alan Lin said that when developers raise prices 10 per cent to 15 per cent of new residential projects to adjust for higher raw- material costs, resale prices of existing residential units will also rise 10 per cent to 20 per cent, depending on the location.

City condominiums located close to the inner Central Business District, in areas such as the Victory Monument, will also witness a significant rise from an average of Bt60,000 per square metre to about Bt80,000 per square metre, Lin said.

According to research conducted by Harrison, a local property consultant, the demand for residential projects around the Victory Monument has risen because this area has many offices and is located close to the mass-transit system.

However, there is limited availability of land for residential projects for sale around the Victory Monument. This is because most land owners have used the land to develop serviced apartments.

The research said population in the Ratchathivi district stood at 97,416 while the residential register recorded 33,769 units, as of January.

Other locations close to the Ratchathivi district, such as the Phayathai district, the Pathumwan district, the Hua Kwan district and Dusit district recorded a population of 332,538 while the residential register showed 125,647 units.

After analysing these figures, Harrison believes that demand for new residential projects in this location will continue to grow, especially for residential units priced between Bt50,000 per square metre and Bt80,000 per square metre.

Last year, the number of completed condominiums in Bangkok stood at 126,071 units, a rise of 21 per cent from 2006’s figures. Of these, 17 per cent were located at Ratchadapisek while another 17 per cent were at Rama III Road. Another 15 per cent were located at Sukhumvit Road, between Soi 70 and Soi 107 and 14 per cent between Soi 1 and Soi 55. A further 9 per cent of the total condominiums were located inside the Central Business District in areas such as Silom, Sathorn, Wireless Road and Pleon Chit. The Thonburi district also had a figure of 9 per cent while Phahonyothin Road had 7 per cent of the total. Phayathai district had 4 per cent of the completed units and the rest of the 8 per cent were located in other areas on the list.

The research also shows that 67,036 city-condominium units are under construction.

It revealed that one- bedroom apartments with a utilisation space between 45 square metres and 55 square metres are the most popular type of city condominiums.

City Resort Development managing director Chaivai Poonlapmongkol said the company believes demand for residential projects in areas close to the Victory Monument and the Sky Train has seen strong growth following the rise in cost of living.

“Buying a property located close to the mass-transit system reduces the transportation costs for homebuyers. People buying properties with an investment focus can also expect good rental income because this location has a number of offices and schools,” he said.

Chaivai said investors can expect a return of 7 per cent to 10 per cent.

• 27 May 2008
• The Nation
• SOMLUCK SRIMALEE THE NATION

Vietnam - Foreigners allowed to buy apartments

HANOI: Vietnam has passed a law allowing certain categories of foreigners to buy apartments beginning in 2009, the first time the communist country has allowed non-citizens to own real estate.

The National Assembly approved the new law on Thursday, with 88% of deputies voting for it, the government said on its official website yesterday..

Foreigners eligible under the law can only buy apartments in developments approved for foreign residency, not houses or land. Ownership will be for a term of 50 years, by which time the foreign owners must sell or transfer the property.

Real estate developers said the law was likely to give a much needed boost to Vietnam’s property markets, which have softened recently after explosive growth in 2007.

‘‘It could have a 20 to 30% impact in terms of rising prices,’’ said William Badger, a manager at Leonidas Management, a subsidiary of the Hong Kongbased real estate company Tung Shing Group.

‘‘Similar laws have been passed in China, Thailand and Malaysia,’’ said Misha Chellam, assistant to the chairman of Hanoi-based developer Vietnam Land. ‘‘Each time in those countries when a law like this was passed, it significantly boosted demand.’’

Those eligible to buy apartments include foreign firms purchasing housing for staff, and four categories of individuals. These include foreigners working at Vietnamese firms, foreigners married to Vietnamese, foreigners with special skills needed by Vietnam’s economy, and foreigners who have been awarded medals or other honours by the government.

It was not immediately clear how much the new law would differ from current law allowing foreigners to obtain 50-year leases on property in Vietnam. Normally in Vietnam, new laws are followed by decrees and circulars clarifying how the law will be implemented, and developers expect that the move from lease to ownership will grant foreigners additional security.

Japan invest Bt7.6 billion in Thailand.

SIAM ZOKAI GETS AGGRESSIVE ON EXPANSION PLAN

Thailand continues to be a key market as the firm designs an overseas foray

Siam Zokai, the property arm of Saha Group, has set aside an investment budget of about Bt5 billion for the development of property projects worth Bt7.6 billion in Bangkok, Phuket and Chiang Mai till 2010, the company’s Japanese president Yasuo Miyazaki said.

Siam Zokai is a joint venture between Saha Group which holds a 51- per- cent stake while Yasuo Miyazaki and his wife own the other 49 per cent. The company has a registered capital of Bt100 million.

The company is developing two property projects worth about Bt3.4 billion. Peaks Town, the first project in Chiang Mai, is worth nearly Bt1 billion. It will have six buildings including Twin Peaks, Peaks Garden, Peaks Changklan, Peaks Avenue, Peaks Mall and Peaks Market. This project is being developed under the community- living concept which integrates residential units and a shopping plaza in the same location.

Construction at Twin Peaks is complete and the building is sold out. The company expects to transfer the units to its customer this year.

The other buildings have also been sold up to 70 per cent and the rest is expected to be lapped up by customers within the year.

Grand Peaks, the company’s second project is worth Bt2.4 billion and is located in the Sriracha district, Chonburi. It is a luxury-condominium project with a 31- storey building and 570 units. Prices start at Bt65,000 per square metre – an increase from last year’s price of Bt60,000 per square metre consequent to construction costs rising. About 200 units have been sold. The project is under construction and is expected to be completed by the middle of next year.

Miyazaki said the company plans to develop three more projects with a cumulative value of Bt4.6 billion in 2010, after the existing projects are completed and sold off.

These three projects include; Peaks Andaman in Phuket worth Bt1.4 billion; North Park Office, an office building worth Bt1.2 billion located at North Park on Vibhawadee Rangsit Road; and Sathupadit Peaks Tower, another luxury-condominium project with a 31- storey building worth Bt2 billion.

The company is studying the market with a view to develop an integrated complex with luxury condominiums, a shopping centre and an office building in the same area with a combined utilisation space of up to 100,000 square metres. The project is likely to be in Bangkok’s Central Business District.

“We cannot give more information about the location of the new project but it will be developed on land already owned by Saha Group. This project may have another Japanese partner. This part is under negotiation,” he said.

The company will also start expansion in the overseas market in the next two to three years with a special focus on Malaysia and Vietnam. Malaysia is helped by a flexible law onforeign investments in the property business.

“Malaysia holds higher for us over Vietnam, where competition and land prices have surged,” he said.

Thailand remains the main market for Siam Zokai’s expansion plans. This is because it believes that demand for residential projects in the country remains strong.

Luxury condo purchases driving market forward

Luxury condo purchases driving market forward

Thailand’s property market remains extremely buoyant despite a number of challenges it faced last year, while continuing to hold enormous potential for accelerated growth.

The resilience is encouraging with takeup rates and numbers of completed developments rising and the price per square metre (psm) of condominiums climbing, enabling investors to achieve healthy returns.

The segment that is really driving the market forward is condominiums, especially in the luxury bracket, evidence that there is high demand for quality product among both overseas and local investors.

Resort destinations have also performed well, despite quota and leasehold restrictions that have put the brakes on the high interest shown among the international investment community.

In recent research conducted by Raimon Land that covered Bangkok and key resort destinations, we can see that despite a tough political climate last year, the inner-city Bangkok condominium segment inched ahead 3% to reach 43.7 billion baht in sales.

Condominiums have clearly become the fastest growing segment in the residential market, with luxury developments emerging as an alternative for many local investors.

A second-half surge in Bangkok condominium demand in 2007 brought the year-end sales tally to 6,214 new units. Achieved prices and sales performances in high-end developments were particularly strong, with investors prepared to pay an additional 50% or more on top of the median price to secure the finest inner-city properties.

Completions of new condominiums have picked up, with 5,100 units added in 2007 compared to the 6,940 units launched. The supply/demand balance remains healthy with about 92% of the units in newly completed developments being sold. Performance in projects that have already started construction on the main structure and those that are still in earlier construction stages is similarly impressive.

Developers in Thailand’s resort areas remained hesitant in 2007 due to uncertainties in new amendments to the Foreign Business Act. However, strong absorption from foreigners, who rushed to buy condominiums with available foreign ownership titles, pushed the total market value for resort condominiums to 17 billion baht, up 12% from 2006.

Locations close to Bangkok, where there is balanced Thai-foreign demand, were the most active. Pattaya led with 6.6 billion baht sold in 2007 followed by Hua Hin with 6.3 billion.

Koh Samui and Phuket, which depend on international investors for around 90% of the demand, were greatly affected by the regulation limiting foreign allocated units to 49% of the total inventory. Although the cap is not new, there was also the fear last year that it would be further strengthened.

This prompted the postponement of new launches, especially among small under-capitalised developers who depend on early bookings. This precipitated a healthy 61% takeup rate in 2007, with buyers snapping up 96% of the units in new developments.

Resort areas are benefiting from very low availability of completed supply, driving up prices in both resale and offplan developments.

In 2007, close to a quarter of the units sold in resort areas were priced above 100,000 baht per square metre, and the number of seaview/beachfront units available for less than 100,000 baht psm is falling rapidly.

In the first quarter of 2008, the industry confirmed the recovery sparked in the last quarter of 2007 and as it approaches the middle of the year, it is demonstrating a vibrancy and dynamism that will continue to drive it forward.

This is good news for both overseas and local investors, as superb opportunities exist in the market for buyers to achieve healthy capital gains and solid rental returns.

The research that we have completed provides detailed evidence of these trends and highlights a property market that not only has a strong competitive advantage over its regional competitors but one that is maturing fast.

Our analysis draws on a wide range of factors to present a balanced, realistic survey of current market conditions. It examines new project launches in the context of annual and cumulative unit sales, price per square metre, location, takeup rates at projects under construction and completed transfers. It also employs economic indicators to provide a more precise outlook for 2008.

While providing insight for investors and buyers, what it most clearly demonstrates is that Thailand remains a growing market with huge scope for further growth. (This is the second in a series of four articles that draws on research by Raimon Land contained in ‘Condominium Focus Thailand: Update of Inner-city Bangkok and Key Resort Areas’. To reserve a copy, e-mail: research@raimonland.com or download at www.raimonland.com)

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